Understanding the dynamics and drivers of the COVID-2019 epidemic using real-time outbreak analytics

  • Funded by Department of Health and Social Care / National Institute for Health and Care Research (DHSC-NIHR), UK Research and Innovation (UKRI)
  • Total publications:73 publications

Grant number: MC_PC_19065

Grant search

Key facts

  • Disease

    COVID-19
  • Start & end year

    2020
    2021
  • Known Financial Commitments (USD)

    $1,262,687.54
  • Funder

    Department of Health and Social Care / National Institute for Health and Care Research (DHSC-NIHR), UK Research and Innovation (UKRI)
  • Principle Investigator

    Pending
  • Research Location

    United Kingdom, Europe
  • Lead Research Institution

    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
  • Research Category

    Epidemiological studies

  • Research Subcategory

    Disease transmission dynamics

  • Special Interest Tags

    Gender

  • Study Subject

    Non-Clinical

  • Clinical Trial Details

    N/A

  • Broad Policy Alignment

    Pending

  • Age Group

    Unspecified

  • Vulnerable Population

    Unspecified

  • Occupations of Interest

    Unspecified

Abstract

This COVID-19 Rapid Response award is jointly funded (50:50) between the Medical Research Council and the National Institute for Health Research. The figure displayed is the total award amount of the two funders combined, with each partner contributing equally towards the project. Efficient response to COVID-19 requires an understanding of the epidemiological and behavioural drivers of disease transmission. Due to the rapidly evolving outbreak and the mitigation strategies likely to be put in place at different times, analyses of epidemic drivers and policy evaluation need constant updating to provide relevant data-driven evidence to inform evolving public health choices. We will provide rapid, continually updated estimates of key epidemiological features such as disease severity and transmissibility measures and lengths of stay. Surveillance, serological and sequence data (where available) will be analysed accounting for censoring and reporting delays. Mathematical models will be fit to the emerging data streams using Bayesian methods to provide regular forecasting updates and assess the impact of current or potential future interventions. Contact and precautionary behaviours will be monitored in a representative cohort along with information on risk awareness and perceived efficacy of interventions to refine transmission models, improve forecasting, and assess the effectiveness of social distancing measures. Special attention will be given to sharing results in an open and timely manner. Epidemiological parameter estimates and forecasts will be shared on a public website, updated daily. User-friendly web interfaces will allow users to generate model outputs and investigate the impact of specific model assumptions on different policy findings. Highlights of essential results will be gathered in short policy briefs updated weekly. Findings will immediately inform UK policy through participation on UK Government advisory committees.

Publicationslinked via Europe PMC

Last Updated:41 minutes ago

View all publications at Europe PMC

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 against SARS-CoV-2 household transmission: a prospective cohort study in England.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 against SARS-CoV-2 household transmission: a prospective cohort study in England

Call detail record aggregation methodology impacts infectious disease models informed by human mobility.

Population disruption: observational study of changes in the population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic

Pregnancy during COVID-19: social contact patterns and vaccine coverage of pregnant women from CoMix in 19 European countries.

Simulating respiratory disease transmission within and between classrooms to assess pandemic management strategies at schools.

Social contacts and other risk factors for respiratory infections among internally displaced people in Somaliland.

The quantification of vaccine uptake in the Nordic countries and impact on key indicators of COVID-19 severity and healthcare stress level via age range comparative analysis.

Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era.