Understanding the dynamics and drivers of the COVID-2019 epidemic using real-time outbreak analytics

This COVID-19 Rapid Response award is jointly funded (50:50) between the Medical Research Council and the National Institute for Health Research. The figure displayed is the total award amount of the two funders combined, with each partner contributing equally towards the project. Efficient response to COVID-19 requires an understanding of the epidemiological and behavioural drivers of disease transmission. Due to the rapidly evolving outbreak and the mitigation strategies likely to be put in place at different times, analyses of epidemic drivers and policy evaluation need constant updating to provide relevant data-driven evidence to inform evolving public health choices. We will provide rapid, continually updated estimates of key epidemiological features such as disease severity and transmissibility measures and lengths of stay. Surveillance, serological and sequence data (where available) will be analysed accounting for censoring and reporting delays. Mathematical models will be fit to the emerging data streams using Bayesian methods to provide regular forecasting updates and assess the impact of current or potential future interventions. Contact and precautionary behaviours will be monitored in a representative cohort along with information on risk awareness and perceived efficacy of interventions to refine transmission models, improve forecasting, and assess the effectiveness of social distancing measures. Special attention will be given to sharing results in an open and timely manner. Epidemiological parameter estimates and forecasts will be shared on a public website, updated daily. User-friendly web interfaces will allow users to generate model outputs and investigate the impact of specific model assumptions on different policy findings. Highlights of essential results will be gathered in short policy briefs updated weekly. Findings will immediately inform UK policy through participation on UK Government advisory committees.