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Modelling the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Virulence under different social isolation regimes

Grant number: COV/SAN/20/05

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Key facts

  • Disease

    COVID-19

  • Known Financial Commitments (USD)

    $47,158.44

  • Funder

    CSO Scotland

  • Principal Investigator

    Nathan Bailey

  • Research Location

    United Kingdom

  • Lead Research Institution

    University of St Andrews

  • Research Priority Alignment

    N/A

  • Research Category

    Epidemiological studies

  • Research Subcategory

    Disease transmission dynamics

  • Special Interest Tags

    N/A

  • Study Type

    Non-Clinical

  • Clinical Trial Details

    N/A

  • Broad Policy Alignment

    Pending

  • Age Group

    Unspecified

  • Vulnerable Population

    Unspecified

  • Occupations of Interest

    Unspecified

Abstract

It is critical to ensure that public health responses to Covid-19 do not inadvertently promote the evolution of greater SARS-CoV-2 virulence. This research will use theoretical models to investigate how the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 evolves in response to different social distancing strategies. We will assess key factors including (i) who is isolated (all positive tests, only symptomatic, contacts, etc.), (ii) how they are isolated (family structure of isolated individuals), and (iii) effects of future vaccination. The findings will guide interventions to prevent viral transmission and mitigate future virulence.