Early and long term immunity following SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is the prototype flavivirus and is historically the most important arthropod-borne viralpathogen of humans worldwide with ~200,000 infections annually and a mortality of ~50% in those who developsevere symptoms. YFV is endemic throughout Africa and South America and had been largely controlled throughmass vaccination. The YFV vaccine 17D is considered one of the most effective live-attenuated virus (LAV)vaccines ever developed. Even so, every 10-year boosts have been recommended to maintain immunity.However, falling vaccination rates have led to a dramatic resurgence of disease in both Africa and SouthAmerica, and subsequent vaccination campaigns have depleted the global supply of 17D. In response to thesevaccine shortages, the WHO and CDC revised the 10-year boost to a once-in-a-lifetime vaccinationrecommendation, despite limited supporting data: although serosurveys find that ~90% of vaccinees havedetectable neutralizing antibodies to YFV, careful review of these surveys finds that among individuals living inYFV non-endemic settings, at least 20% of YFV vaccinees lack detectable neutralizing antibodies at >10 yearspost-vaccination. While this finding must be critically evaluated in the context of ongoing outbreaks and vaccineshortages, it also represents a unique opportunity to study how 17D induces and maintains neutralizingantibodies in some vaccinees but not in others. Our central premise is that long-term YFV immunity is establishedby host immune activation in response to vaccine viremia at the time of vaccination: downstream effects ofdetectable differences in duration and magnitude of vaccine viremia at vaccination determine whether or not avaccinee develops life-long immunity. We propose to evaluate this premise and its broader implications in threeseparate Aims: Aim 1 tests the hypothesis that vaccine viremia correlates with the long-term durability of of YFVneutralizing antibodies. We will enroll YFV pre-vaccinees and prospectively characterize acute vaccine viremia,acute innate immune and adaptive immune responses, and neutralizing antibody titers up to 5 years thereafter.Aim 2 tests the hypothesis that at least 20% of 17D vaccinated subjects will lose YFV immunity between 3- and7-years post vaccination. We will recruit and prospectively follow a cohort of 17D vaccinees vaccinated 2-3 yearsprior to enrollment, comparing changes in YFV neutralizing antibodies and other immune markers over time andcharacterizing individual and cohort antibody decay kinetics. In Aim 3 we use 17D revaccination as a live-viruschallenge to test the hypothesis that neutralizing antibody titers correlate with YFV protection. We willprospectively characterize pre-boost antibodies titers, vaccine viremia, acute immune responses and post-boosttiters in vaccinees receiving boost 17D vaccinations. We expect to identify neutralizing antibody titers abovewhich sterilizing immunity is conferred and titers below which it is not. These Aims will set a foundation for futurestudies to further dissect determinants of 17D and other LAV induced immunity and establish metrics that couldallow efficient prioritization of 17D vaccination and optimize 17D use in the face of current and future outbreaks.