COVID-19: Measuring the effects of Covid-19 on businesses and the UK economy

This application addresses two of the key objectives of this grant scheme by • gathering critical data on the business response to Covid-19 quickly for immediate policy and future research use. • providing new research with a clear impact pathway that has the potential to deliver a significant contribution to the understanding of, and response to, the Covid-19 pandemic and its impacts on UK businesses. We draw on our experience from the Decision Maker Panel (ESRC-BoE-funded), Business Impact of Covid Survey (ONS-funded) and Management and Expectations Survey (ESRC-ONS-funded) coordinated through the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE). We will • Collect information fortnightly/monthly on Covid-19. Responses from businesses are immediately used for policy decisions in real time by Bank policy committees (MPC and FPC), HM Treasury, BEIS, 10 Downing St and COBRA. • Formulate and cognitively test Covid-19 questions. A Business Engagement Group including McKinsey, CBI, CMI, Be the Business, BEIS will assist us. • Create a data archive offering a matched dataset using administrative data and ONS surveys to provide detailed analysis of the immediate impact on employment, investment and sales growth using state of the art dynamic panel methods in Stata. • Assess the resilience to shocks from a survey focused on management practices updated with Covid-19 questions prior to placement in the field in September 2020, to document the ability of better- (worse-) managed firm to respond to shocks. • Evaluate the impact on businesses over the next 18 months regarding business performance (productivity), use of debt, digital technology, working practices, supply chains etc.