Mathematical modeling and adaptive control to inform real time decision making for the COVID-19 pandemic at the local, regional and national scale

  • Funded by Department of Health and Social Care / National Institute for Health and Care Research (DHSC-NIHR), UK Research and Innovation (UKRI)
  • Total publications:24 publications

Grant number: MR/V009761/1

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Key facts

  • Disease

  • Start & end year

  • Known Financial Commitments (USD)

  • Funder

    Department of Health and Social Care / National Institute for Health and Care Research (DHSC-NIHR), UK Research and Innovation (UKRI)
  • Principle Investigator

  • Research Location

    United Kingdom, Europe
  • Lead Research Institution

    University of Warwick
  • Research Category

    Epidemiological studies

  • Research Subcategory

    Disease transmission dynamics

  • Special Interest Tags


  • Study Subject


  • Clinical Trial Details


  • Broad Policy Alignment


  • Age Group

    Not Applicable

  • Vulnerable Population

    Not applicable

  • Occupations of Interest

    Not applicable


Emergence of a novel strain of coronavirus in the city of Wuhan in China resulted in a global pandemic and the implementation of social distancing measures in a significant number of countries around the world in order to reduce the risk to the most vulnerable members of society. The first case of infection in the UK was reported on 31st January 2020 and with cases continuing to rise, the country was put into lockdown on 23rd March in an effort to reduce the spread of disease.Throughout the epidemic in the UK, mathematical models (including predictions from Warwick) have been used to provide support to the government and to guide decision making. However, these models are typically required to repeatedly produce new outputs as more data emerges on a daily basis on cases and deaths, and there is a need to investigate how the predictions are likely to change as more data become available.This project will develop methodology that will allow for robust parameter inference of the Warwick model, which is already being used for UK-decision support. We will enhance our real time model fitting, incorporating up to date information on cases and outcomes, and use this framework to determine multi-phase adaptive control policies, with a focus upon optimal timing of relaxation and tightening of social distancing measures, that should be implemented to mitigate future infection waves. Our results will be communicated directly to the scientific pandemic influenza modelling group that advises the UK government.

Publicationslinked via Europe PMC

Last Updated:39 minutes ago

View all publications at Europe PMC

The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England.

Coughs, colds and "freshers' flu" survey in the University of Cambridge, 2007-2008.

Modelling the epidemiological implications for SARS-CoV-2 of Christmas household bubbles in England.

Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia.

A comparative analysis of epidemiological characteristics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia.

Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England.

Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and their relevance in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Saudi Arabia and Arab Gulf countries.

Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences: A modelling study.