Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics and impact of policy by modeling individual decisions of the general population

  • Funded by Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung [German Federal Ministry of Education and Research] (BMBF)
  • Total publications:2 publications

Grant number: 01KI20102

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Key facts

  • Disease

    COVID-19
  • Start & end year

    2020
    2021
  • Known Financial Commitments (USD)

    $229,335.32
  • Funder

    Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung [German Federal Ministry of Education and Research] (BMBF)
  • Principle Investigator

    Pending
  • Research Location

    Germany, Europe
  • Lead Research Institution

    Helmholtz Zentrum für Infektionsforschung, Braunschweig
  • Research Category

    Epidemiological studies

  • Research Subcategory

    Impact/ effectiveness of control measures

  • Special Interest Tags

    Gender

  • Study Subject

    Non-Clinical

  • Clinical Trial Details

    N/A

  • Broad Policy Alignment

    Pending

  • Age Group

    Not Applicable

  • Vulnerable Population

    Not applicable

  • Occupations of Interest

    Not applicable

Abstract

social sciences - The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic leads to a worldwide threat of collapsing health care systems and large numbers of casualties. This necessitates a swift but appropriate response in terms of non-pharmacological interventions to prevent and control the infection. Currently, measures to restrict social contacts are the most important means of limiting the spread of the virus. These measures have economic, psychosocial and other detrimental consequences and need to be limited to the extent and duration that is absolutely necessary. Here, we propose a model that allows to estimate a projected effect of measures based on simulating the impact on individual persons and their behavior in a given environment, going beyond the current state of the art in epidemiologic models. A central improvement over conventional models is the inclusion of a fuzzy logic-based description of the decisions individuals take under the influence of restrictive measures, media reporting, and public communication of policy. By developing this model into a tool including a graphical user interface and parameterizing it based on local data, we provide an accessible way to simulate the impact of policy decisions and inform and guide political and administrative decision processes.

Publicationslinked via Europe PMC

Last Updated:39 minutes ago

View all publications at Europe PMC

Appropriate relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions minimizes the risk of a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections in spite of the Delta variant.

Development of the reproduction number from coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data in Germany and implications for political measures.