The short- and medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on exports: a firm-level comparison study in the UK, China and Germany

Globalisation and exports have been key drivers of economic development over the last decades. However, COVID-19 and associated public health policies have led to demand and supply-side shocks, which severely impact the long-running trend of increasing global economic integration. On the other hand, governments are developing special policies to encourage continued exporting. In this research, I am looking at two related research questions: 1) what is the causal impact that COVID-19 has on export performance and 2) do government export stimulus policies lead to better export performance. To study these questions, I am planning to access firm-level data from three leading exporting countries with differing policy responses to the pandemic: China, Germany and the UK and to apply econometric modelling, which I used in previous research, in order to identify causal effects. The econometric work will be complemented by interviews with a selection of 10 companies from each country.