Estimation, simulation and control for optimal containment of COVID-19

The project will develop a decision support tool for the Danish authorities. The aim is to limit the spread of COVIC-19 so as to shorten the epidemic, but without straining the healthcare system beyond its critical capacity in terms of number of intensive care beds, ventilators, etc. This will be done through mathematical modelling, simulation, control and optimization in relation to various possible interventions and measures available to the authorities, such as restrictions on social gatherings, closure of institutions, isolation of potentially infected individuals and isolation of vulnerable citizens. The models will be calibrated on a continuous basis and will thus utilize information provided by data as soon as data from hospitals etc. become available. The developed tool will be enable the authorities to select the combination of interventions and their duration that will have the optimal effect for society. The tool also describes how to establish a gradual and controlled reopening of society. The project will be carried out in collaboration between the Technical University of Denmark and Aalborg University.