Monitoring the actual population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Norway to model and predict the current and future epidemic

The current COVID-19 pandemic is an emergency with difficult challenges. Most cases have mild symptoms and transmissions occur pre-symptomatically or even asymptomatically. Furthermore, there are large differences in mortality rates between countries. Limited testing and epidemiological uncertainties lead to possible underestimation of the scope of the epidemic. Data are urgently needed to estimate the true prevalence of the disease and tools to assess changes and predictions of the epidemic dynamics. The goals of this project are to assess the point prevalence the Sars-Cov-2 virus in the Norwegian population, to accurately model the epidemic dynamics and establish a system for continuous assessment of changes in prevalence, incidence and overall immunity in the population. Point prevalence will be assessed by collecting sputum samples in a random sample of 4000 Norwegians above the age of 5. This will be repeated after two months on a new set of individuals. Sampling kits are delivered directly to each participant by Bring, collected the day after and shipped to the laboratory for analysis. Additionally, the participants will complete a questionnaire with personal information, including living/working conditions and travels. The participants will report symptoms on a weekly basis through the NIPH platform hosted by Helsenorge. Additional sputum/swab samples may be collected, depending on necessity and funding availability. Later all participants will be asked to donate a blood sample through their Home Doctor Network (Praksisnett) to assess overall population immunity. Questionnaires and transportation databases will allow machine- and complex network modeling to improve understanding of the evolution of the epidemic. Comparative data analysis will be carried out in collaboration with our international partners (UK and Italy. The project will be part of a national effort and an open source dashboard will be implemented to make data and results available.