COVID-19 Seasonality: The effect of environmental variation on the spatio-temporal dynamics at national, regional and global scales

  • Funded by Research Council of Norway (RCN)
  • Total publications:0 publications

Grant number: unknown

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Key facts

  • Disease

    COVID-19
  • Start & end year

    2020
    2022
  • Known Financial Commitments (USD)

    $550,000
  • Funder

    Research Council of Norway (RCN)
  • Principle Investigator

    Pending
  • Research Location

    Norway, Europe
  • Lead Research Institution

    UNIVERSITETET I OSLO
  • Research Category

    Animal and environmental research and research on diseases vectors

  • Research Subcategory

    Animal source and routes of transmission

  • Special Interest Tags

    Gender

  • Study Subject

    Clinical

  • Clinical Trial Details

    Not applicable

  • Broad Policy Alignment

    Pending

  • Age Group

    Unspecified

  • Vulnerable Population

    Unspecified

  • Occupations of Interest

    Unspecified

Abstract

COVID-19 Seasonality is a Norwegian based project with strong collaborations with leading research and response organisations in China, Iran, UK, USA, and the African Union to develop fundamental information and inform the response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The objectives are organized into three Work Packages (WP) to (I) Extract the functional response of SARS-CoV-2 to environmental factors (including weather/seasonal variation) from variations in the growth rate of the COVID-19 pandemic; to (II) Predict the near term and long term seasonality and age-specific burden of infection of COVID-19 in Norway and other countries; and to (III) Prepare Norway (and other countries) for future pandemics by assessing the potential speed and intensity with which new emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) will arrive from geographic high-risk regions. Early in the project, we will produce quantitative models to forecast the seasonal conditions in Norway and other countries that favour and hinder the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, improving predictions of epidemic trends. We will continue to improve and iterate on these models throughout the project. In addition to the quantitative models, we will produce three high-quality novel datasets: (1) a dataset of the timing and spatial extent of various control measures, testing regimes and hospital patient overflows, (2) a dataset of global hotspots of human-wildlife interactions sourced from grey and published literature, and (3) a spatial database with a probabilistic assessment of the speed and intensity with which future viral spillovers are expected to arrive. We will through COVID-19 Seasonality carry out basic research and apply the obtained insights to one of the biggest challenges of our time. We expect that improved understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic will contribute profoundly to improve the preparedness against future diseases in Norway as well as globally.