COVID-19 in Norway: A real-time analytical pipeline for preparedness, planning and response during the COVID-19 pandemic in Norway

The rapidly expanding COVID-19 pandemic poses an imminent threat to the human population and the world economy. There is a need for novel data and high quality analyses of the evolving epidemic in order to guide policies. The overarching purpose of our project is to deliver real-time relevant output to guide policies on the actions to combat the ongoing Covid-19 epidemic in Norway. Our vehicle for these outputs is an advanced mathematical model that incorporates population movements from telephone surveillance as well as a series of epidemiological observations, including data from large cohorts and nation-wide registries. The model can simulate and assess the effects of actions that decrease person-to-person contact in the whole population, as well as in subgroups. Mathematical modelling will make projections of scenarios with different mitigation measures. We will combine dedicated analytical capacities with real time data harvesting, and we will interpret trends, the future course of the pandemic, and explore the possibilities for action to guide decision makers despite remaining uncertainty. We will use repeated data on symptoms from more than 200 000 participants in The Norwegian Influenza Cohort (NorFlu) and the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) with extensive information on previous diseases, exposures and life styles, and whole-genome genotyping. We will examine if underlying genetic predisposition to various diseases influence the susceptibility for COVID-19, or the progression of the disease. Using registry data on the whole Norwegian populations, we will include sociodemographic variables from Statistics Norway and data from health registries that include the newly odes for Covid-19 infection in primary and secondary health care. This will enable us to describe the burden of disease caused by this epidemic and analyse long-term consequences.