Developing a Macro Model of COVID-19 for Canada: Interaction of Monetary, Fiscal, and Health Policies [Funder: Carleton University COVID-19 Rapid Research Response Grants]

We will develop a unified framework integrating a social-distancing-augmented Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model of COVID-19 and its evolution with a state-of-the-art macroeconomic model, thus overcoming a major modelling gap. This integrated model will study: (i) public health interventions to slow the spread of disease, (ii) sequentially restarting economic activity in different sectors, and (iii) the interaction between health, fiscal, and monetary policies. Our diverse and experienced international research team, involving two PhD students, is well poised to take on this challenge and develop a model that can be rapidly deployed for quantitative scenario-analyses for Canada using aggregate and provincial data, and to inform decision-making and planning at the Bank of Canada. A key innovation in our research is to introduce age-specific social distancing within a multi-sector economic model. This model will help determine "road maps" to economic recovery, and how the interaction among policy responses can support them.