COVID-19: TOURISM RECOVERY, RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

Tourism has been severely affected by Covid-19, and it is anticipated that it will be one of the last sectors to recover fully from the effects of the pandemic. It faces enduring tourist unwillingness to take risks when booking holidays in the face of uncertain health hazards and border/containment controls. Official estimates predict that international tourism will decline by 55% and domestic tourism by 24% in 2020, with demand remaining subdued until 2022. This matters because tourism accounts for almost 10% of UK jobs, dominates some local economies and contributes to the quality of life of individuals. This project will analyze how unprecedented Covid-19 related risks and uncertainties shape tourist intentions in the UK's inbound, outbound and domestic markets: substitution between domestic and outbound (international) tourism will also be analysed. The impacts on different market segments will be examined: on long-haul versus short-haul international tourism, and on urban versus rural versus coastal tourism destinations. Additionally, both attitudes to risk and uncertainty, and vulnerability to Covid-19, also vary by social characteristics: by age, gender, education, income and ethnicity. The research has two main stages. The first analyses large scale surveys of potential tourists in the UK and its four largest markets: Germany, France, USA, and China. Statistical modelling will provide detailed analyses of attitudes to risks and uncertainties in different elements of the tourism experience: travel versus accommodation versus visiting attractions and places of entertainment. The project will also provide an overall assessment of the determinants of tourism intentions in both the short (3 month) and the long term (to the end of 2021). The second stage of the research analyses how individual tourist intentions would change when faced with contrasting Covid-19 health and containment scenarios. How would different types of tourists respond to continuing gradual relaxation of border and social controls as the pandemic retreats, versus a second wave leading to selective or widespread imposition of lockdown controls such as quarantine, border testing, strict social distancing rules, and closure of commercial and social venues. This research will provide a new evidence base on tourist intentions that can underpin more accurate demand forecasts, and more targeted market research and policy measures for UK tourism. The project is undertaken in collaboration with two leading tourism organizations: VisitBritain and the Association of British Travel Agents.