RAPID: Coronavirus, new patterns in electricity demand, and energy inequality

The aim of this project is to advance national health and welfare through investigating the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on electricity demand. The pandemic has resulted in widespread stay-at-home policies meaning that, vulnerable populations such as those with low income, ethnic minorities, and the elderly might face a disproportionally higher increase in electricity expenditure. The likely inequitable energy impact on these groups could be a result of less energy-efficient homes, increased need for electrical appliances (i.e. school computers), and larger household sizes. The resulting higher energy expenditure burden might imply constraints of these groups to create a comfortable indoor environment, which is particularly vital to maintaining good health during a pandemic. This project will (1) quantify the electricity expenditure re-distribution and uncover how this relates to the wealth redistribution as lay-offs increase; (2) develop a deeper understanding of the pandemic's impact on the electricity grid for different consumer types. This work will inform policies that can reduce the energy burden of the most vulnerable populations whose job security, educational development, and mental health are linked to their ability to satisfy their energy demand, particularly during an international crisis.

In pursuit of this research the research team will conduct consumer-level statistical and machine learning analyses using large samples of individual-consumer-level hourly smart meter electricity demand data in the residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors in Phoenix metropolitan, Arizona, and Chicago metropolitan, Illinois, as well as electricity and heating gas consumption data in New York City, New York. This will be combined with detailed socio-demographic and building attribute information for residential consumers which will allow for a more detailed analysis of electricity impacts, and impacts on energy expenditure. We will also conduct a consumer survey examining the changes in electricity consumption behaviors due to the pandemic. The pandemic has also highlighted the need to improve the measurement of energy inequality and poverty. We will develop an index based on the distance in energy consumption levels to measure the inability of households to obtain sufficient energy services. Once developed this index can then be used by the utilities and policymakers to identify the consumers suffering from energy poverty in a timely and precise fashion. We will examine energy poverty in the context of load profiles so that our findings can inform utilities regarding what types of demand-side management practices such as time-of-use pricing can help or hurt the consumers suffering from energy poverty. The consumer-level analysis on the load profiles will provide heterogeneous impact estimates and thus can better help utilities forecast future impacts on load and evaluate the uncertainties. This is especially important because there might be long-term structural changes in the demand patterns so that the load curves may not rebound back to the original patterns when the virus is gone. Lastly, our consumer-level analysis will quantify the heterogeneous changes in the temperature-response functions (how consumers change their electricity consumption in response to temperature change) due to the crisis. Quantifying the impact of such a complex redistribution of electricity demand on the load shape will help utilities better plan for capacity and portfolio management. This will be particularly important if coronavirus is persistent throughout the summer when cooling loads are high, or when there is a possibility of more waves of coronavirus.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.