COVID-19 Modelling Consortium: quantitative epidemiological predictions in response to an evolving pandemic

Mathematical and statistical modelling has been hugely influential providing rigorous estimates of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and making short-term and long-term predictions for decisions on interventions. We are leaving the first phase of this epidemic, cases are slowly declining but there are local outbreaks and variation between regions is of increasing importance. Although standard epidemiological modelling tools have worked well so far, a suite of new tools are now needed that can deal with spatially- and socially-structured stochastic dynamics and population heterogeneities. The teams of epidemiological modellers and statisticians in this consortium represent a core of committed and experienced research groups that have dedicated the last six months to generating predictions, forecasts and insights feeding into SPI-M and SAGE. To tackle the challenges of the next 18 months, these teams require investment in staff time and personnel. The proposed consortium will support these established and collaborating research teams, build national capacity and help train the next generation of applied epidemiological modellers. We have developed a core set of eight overarching questions that we feel underpin the future challenges that will need to be addressed by SPI-M, SAGE & JBC: 1. Data collation, processing and analysis 2. Statistical and computational fundamentals for outbreaks 3. Detection of hotspots or regions in need of greater control 4. Surveillance, Test and Trace 5. Structured environments (workplaces, care homes, hospitals, schools, universities) 6. Realistic individual-scale modelling of contemporary social interactions 7. Implications of finer-scale individual-level characteristics 8. Detailed retrospective analysis of the first wave