Occupational changes and skill mismatch following Covid-19: implications for graduates in the UK

This study investigates how the distribution of workers across occupations has changed during the Covid-pandemic, and how such changes have affected the match between workers' education and the requirements of a particular occupation. This skill mismatch is likely to have increased during the pandemic, with an increase in the associated costs of lower earnings, lower job satisfaction and lower productivity. This study aims to: (1) evaluate the extent of occupational shifts; (2) estimate the impact of the pandemic on the skill-mismatch, both nationally and regionally; (3) analyse the uptake of training during the crisis and whether this reduces the skill mismatch. Analysing occupational shifts will provide vital understanding of how labour market opportunities are changing. Shifts in occupations could lead to a loss of human capital, if workers made redundant cannot find an alternative occupation matching their qualification. This can have long-term effects on their future career and on productivity. Training may offset this situation by allowing workers either to remain in their current occupation or to find a match where their skills are going to be valued. Although undoubtedly the repercussions of the pandemic affect all types of workers, we focus on graduates and younger workers since they are facing very uncertain job prospects and they are more likely to be at risk. They are also more occupationally and geographically mobile. Work by Vecchi (Co-I) and the ONS also shows that the incidence of overeducation is higher among graduates, which further justifies focusing on this group of workers.