Dynamic prediction of scenarios of COVID-19 impact in the short and medium term (PREDICO)

It is about predicting the evolution of the expansion and incidence of COVID-19, solving the main problems that known models are facing: the disputed reliability of the available data, both due to difficulties in the detection mechanisms and due to a probable abundance of asymptomatic infected. For this, a work is proposed on three fronts: a) based on compartmental models, which provide systems of differential equations; b) with the so-called Empirical Dynamic Modeling, which dispenses with equations, thus eliminating any dependence on the fact of predetermining causal agents; and c) through an analysis of the analysis of the Spanish social network, which will feed back a) and b). The works in these three blocks will have continuous interconnection.