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Dynamic prediction of scenarios of COVID-19 impact in the short and medium term (PREDICO)

  • Funded by National Institute of Health Carlos III [El Instituto de Salud Carlos III] (ISCIII)
  • Total publications:0 publications

Grant number: COV20_00617

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Key facts

  • Disease

    COVID-19

  • Start & end year

    N/A

  • Funder

    National Institute of Health Carlos III [El Instituto de Salud Carlos III] (ISCIII)

  • Principal Investigator

    Jorge Mira Pérez

  • Research Location

    Spain

  • Lead Research Institution

    Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (USC)

  • Research Priority Alignment

    N/A

  • Research Category

    Epidemiological studies

  • Research Subcategory

    Disease surveillance & mapping

  • Special Interest Tags

    N/A

  • Study Type

    Non-Clinical

  • Clinical Trial Details

    N/A

  • Broad Policy Alignment

    Pending

  • Age Group

    Not Applicable

  • Vulnerable Population

    Not applicable

  • Occupations of Interest

    Not applicable

Abstract

It is about predicting the evolution of the expansion and incidence of COVID-19, solving the main problems that known models are facing: the disputed reliability of the available data, both due to difficulties in the detection mechanisms and due to a probable abundance of asymptomatic infected. For this, a work is proposed on three fronts: a) based on compartmental models, which provide systems of differential equations; b) with the so-called Empirical Dynamic Modeling, which dispenses with equations, thus eliminating any dependence on the fact of predetermining causal agents; and c) through an analysis of the analysis of the Spanish social network, which will feed back a) and b). The works in these three blocks will have continuous interconnection.