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Study of the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with physico-mathematical epidemiological models. Monitoring, control strategies, simulations and surveys

  • Funded by National Institute of Health Carlos III [El Instituto de Salud Carlos III] (ISCIII)
  • Total publications:0 publications

Grant number: COV20_00736

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Key facts

  • Disease

    COVID-19

  • Funder

    National Institute of Health Carlos III [El Instituto de Salud Carlos III] (ISCIII)

  • Principal Investigator

    Antonio Guirao Piñera

  • Research Location

    Spain

  • Lead Research Institution

    Universidad de Murcia

  • Research Priority Alignment

    N/A

  • Research Category

    Epidemiological studies

  • Research Subcategory

    Disease transmission dynamics

  • Special Interest Tags

    N/A

  • Study Type

    Non-Clinical

  • Clinical Trial Details

    N/A

  • Broad Policy Alignment

    Pending

  • Age Group

    Not Applicable

  • Vulnerable Population

    Not applicable

  • Occupations of Interest

    Not applicable

Abstract

An investigation initiated on the growth dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic will continue using physico-mathematical epidemiological models. The study will be carried out on the official data on the number of patients. The following will be investigated: the phases of the epidemic (exponential growth, peak and decrease); gravity according to the height and width of the peak; growth rate and reproductive number; effect of uncertainty on the number of infected. The scientific basis for the design of the most suitable containment strategies will be proposed according to the optimization of parameters (not only confinement). Simulations will be carried out in different scenarios of the incidence and affected curves, which help to anticipate control measures, and to understand the risk of importation of cases and outbreaks.