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Mathematical modeling and prediction of the incidence of COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe

  • Funded by National Institute of Health Carlos III [El Instituto de Salud Carlos III] (ISCIII)
  • Total publications:0 publications

Grant number: COV20_01213

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Key facts

  • Disease

    COVID-19

  • Funder

    National Institute of Health Carlos III [El Instituto de Salud Carlos III] (ISCIII)

  • Principal Investigator

    Manuel de la Sen

  • Research Location

    Spain

  • Lead Research Institution

    Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea

  • Research Priority Alignment

    N/A

  • Research Category

    Epidemiological studies

  • Research Subcategory

    Disease transmission dynamics

  • Special Interest Tags

    N/A

  • Study Type

    Clinical

  • Clinical Trial Details

    Not applicable

  • Broad Policy Alignment

    Pending

  • Age Group

    Unspecified

  • Vulnerable Population

    Unspecified

  • Occupations of Interest

    Unspecified

Abstract

We will develop a series of mathematical models that describe the current COVID19 coronavirus epidemic, with various levels of sophistication SIR, SEIR, SSEEIIR, with various delays and infectious structures adapted to the updated medical literature as medical studies specify the parameters of the local situation. . The adjustment method of the various parameters will be carried out using linear regression (normal equation) and machine learning (gradient descent). We will consider the impact of social distancing imposed in various states, as well as other control strategies, in order to measure its effectiveness and determine the best measures to prevent future outbreaks of COVID in the future.