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Simulation and evaluation of the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Spain

  • Funded by National Institute of Health Carlos III [El Instituto de Salud Carlos III] (ISCIII)
  • Total publications:0 publications

Grant number: COV20_01081

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Key facts

  • Disease

    COVID-19

  • Funder

    National Institute of Health Carlos III [El Instituto de Salud Carlos III] (ISCIII)

  • Principal Investigator

    Óscar Gálvez González

  • Research Location

    Spain

  • Lead Research Institution

    UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE EDUCACIÇÿN A DISTANCIA -- UNED

  • Research Priority Alignment

    N/A

  • Research Category

    Epidemiological studies

  • Research Subcategory

    Disease transmission dynamics

  • Special Interest Tags

    N/A

  • Study Type

    Non-Clinical

  • Clinical Trial Details

    N/A

  • Broad Policy Alignment

    Pending

  • Age Group

    Not Applicable

  • Vulnerable Population

    Not applicable

  • Occupations of Interest

    Not applicable

Abstract

This project aims to build its own and realistic model of society to study the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Spain. The model is based on the random movement through the Metropolis Monte Carlos method of a large number of individuals (from 1000,000 to 1,000,000) who interact in certain interconnected scenarios whose parameterization tries to describe the different social collectivities of the people (work , school, family, etc). An extended SIR model will be used, for the characteristics of the individuals and by means of an adequate calibration with the available data, the values of the effective reproduction number and time of generation of the virus in each social layer will be obtained, assessing the validity of possible scenarios and measures to control the epidemic.