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Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany

  • Funded by IZA - Institute of Labor Economics
  • Total publications:0 publications

Grant number: unknown

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Key facts

  • Disease

    COVID-19

  • start year

    -99

  • Known Financial Commitments (USD)

    $0

  • Funder

    IZA - Institute of Labor Economics

  • Principal Investigator

    Jean Roch Donsimoni, René Glawion, Bodo Plachter, Klaus Wälde
    …

  • Research Location

    Germany

  • Lead Research Institution

    N/A

  • Research Priority Alignment

    N/A

  • Research Category

    Epidemiological studies

  • Research Subcategory

    Impact/ effectiveness of control measures

  • Special Interest Tags

    N/A

  • Study Type

    Unspecified

  • Clinical Trial Details

    N/A

  • Broad Policy Alignment

    Pending

  • Age Group

    Not Applicable

  • Vulnerable Population

    Not applicable

  • Occupations of Interest

    Not applicable

Abstract

This study models the evolution of the number of individuals that are reported to be sick with COVID-19 in Germany. The theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or after infection but without symptoms and dead. The quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. The researchers employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. The authors also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios the expected end of the CoV-2 epidemic is reported.