Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and COVID-19

This project develops a multiple-events model and exploits within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population mobility patterns across 135 countries. The authors remove concurrent policy bias by taking into account the contemporaneous presence of multiple interventions. The main result is that cancelling public events and imposing restrictions on private gatherings followed by school closures have quantitatively the most pronounced effects on reducing the daily incidence of COVID-19. They are followed by workplace as well as stay-at-home requirements, whose statistical significance and levels of effect are not as pronounced. Instead, the study finds no effects for international travel controls, public transport closures and restrictions on movements across cities and regions. The authors establish that these findings are mediated by their effect on population mobility patterns in a manner consistent with time-use and epidemiological factors.