Map of the actions of the Universities of the Midwest and North in the fight against the COVID-19 Pandemic

The group of researchers, formed by a consortium of UNB (Laboratory of Disease Dynamics, Laboratory of Geography Environment and Health, Centers for High Strategic Studies for Development), Fiocruz Brasília and Fiocruz Rio de Janeiro (Laboratory of Health Information), aims to study the dynamics of COVID-19 and its social relevance, its effects on the community and forms of control and mitigation. Since 2019, the Ministry of Health has been providing prognoses of the evolution of measles outbreaks in different cities in Brazil, allowing to study the impact of different vaccination scenarios, and thus providing the manager with data-based information for decision making. The mathematical-computational model takes into account known parameters of the disease, modeling the interactions between different age groups based on adjustments based on real data from the initial phase of the outbreaks. The approach is flexible enough to allow the incorporation of new variables and relevant information. The computational applications used were developed in our group, and are in constant improvement. Other applications, in particular dynamic modeling, based on the effect of transmitting the territory, are incorporated for a more in-depth discussion of the discussion in the constituted space. The accumulated experience of this group allows the opportune development to have a computational model to carry out prognosis and analysis of the scenario of the pandemic of COVID-19 in the Federal District, and to deepen the analyzes related to spatial and social interactions, especially to individual susceptibilities. The analyzes must also take into account the uncertainties in the parameters and based on stochastic models. For this the results are based on simulations, with variations of these parameters, establishing confidence intervals. With the experience in using the Auditable Evidence Report, our aim is to improve the quality of the delivery of public services in order to provide scientific evidence for management. In this scenario, decisions about measures at different levels of restriction of people, can generate a fine line between the local economy and the health of the population. This decision is not the face of a coin, but is translated into a public policy of quality and efficiency. In this way, this group of researchers intends to gather in a platform, a realistic scenario so that managers and the population can make a correct judgment, in the light of science, in order to mitigate the effects of this great epidemic that we are experiencing.