Collaborative research: The Intergenerational Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

This project examines the effects of COVID-19 exposure during pregnancy on birth outcomes, over time, and across different groups defined by different sources of disadvantage. The COVID-19 pandemic is a large shock likely to affect infant health through multiple pathways including maternal infection, stress and anxiety, economic hardship, and access to prenatal care. Because these factors differ across groups in the United States, the impact of COVID-19 on birth outcomes will likely be stronger among groups with fewer advantages and certain demographic groups, exacerbating differences in the United States. These effects are critical to understand because birth outcomes predict health and socioeconomic attainment throughout the life course. This study relies on causal inference techniques exploiting variation in infection rates across time and place to capture the consequences of the pandemic on differences in birth outcomes, in particular intrauterine growth restriction, a key predictor of early-life cognition, education, and ultimately earnings. Birth records obtained at the state level with early release are used to provide the earliest possible evidence. Research focuses on six states that provide large and diverse samples across areas where the pandemic has unfolded with significant variation. Time-varying data on COVID incidence and mortality, and local official responses are linked to these data.