Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on Housing and Commercial Real Estate Prices: The Case of Turkey

On the global economic system, which emerged as a health shock within the scope of the project; In this study, it is aimed to investigate in detail the effect of the COVID-19 epidemic, which creates a sudden, strong, external supply and demand shock, on the housing and commercial real estate prices in Turkey, using case study and panel data analysis methods. In the project, first of all, the residential and commercial real estate sector was analyzed and data-based preliminary findings were reached; Then, the effects of the COVID-19 epidemic, the loan package and some selected macroeconomic variables on housing and commercial real estate prices during the event window were examined by panel data analysis through models established with the event study method. According to the empirical findings obtained in the project, the COVID-19 epidemic negatively affects the abnormal returns of residential and commercial real estate. The housing loan package, on the other hand, had a positive impact on abnormal returns on housing. In addition, it was found that the relaxation in credit conditions, rather than the decrease in housing loan interest rates, had a strong effect on housing abnormal returns. On the other hand, the increase in consumer confidence positively affects the abnormal returns of residential and commercial real estate. It was concluded that the depreciation of TL and the rise in the stock market also positively affected the abnormal returns of housing. It can be said that housing sales have increased with the reduction of the interest rate on housing loans in the loan incentive package announced on June 1, within the scope of the COVID-19 measures by the public, 1 year deferred payment, and maturity options up to 15 years. In all regions of Turkey, COVID-19 has a decreasing effect on sales, the housing package has an increasing effect on sales, the epidemic negatively affects the abnormal returns of housing and commercial real estate, on the other hand, low housing loan interest rates, longer maturity, and payment deferral options up to 12 months. It has been observed that the housing loan package has a positive effect on abnormal returns on housing. In the project, it is recommended to increase the frequency of variables and to create data based on online usage data with less publication delay in emergency and effective shock situations such as the COVID-19 period.