Managing Electricity Supply, Production Resources and Demand During the COVID-19 Pandemic

In the project, it was aimed to examine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has affected all sectors and countries and negatively affected the flow of life, and the applied restrictions on electricity demand and daily demand profile, as well as the level of meeting the demand of domestic resources in international resource supply problems. possible solutions are suggested. Within the scope of the project, the effects of the COVID-19 restrictions on electricity demand for Turkey were examined. In this context, in order to determine the effect of each constraint on the total electricity demand, hourly electricity demand was estimated with two different methods and the effects of the constraints were determined by comparing them with real data. As a result of the estimation and analysis made with Fourier Series Expansion and Multiple Linear Regression, it was seen that low-level constraints caused a 2%, medium-level constraints 9% and high-level constraints caused a 12% decrease in electricity demand, and the total decrease was 23%. In order to measure the level of restraint applied, the limitation index developed by Oxford University, which measures the level of restraint of many countries, was also included in the study. The two indices were compared and it was determined that they showed significant similarity in terms of their effects on energy demand. It has been determined and reported with the rates that the daily demand profile shifts from day to night hours. In case of probable problems in international fuel supply, the level of meeting the demand of domestic resources has been examined with scenarios. The pandemic situation should be treated as an unexpected crisis and its consequences should be analyzed for the electricity sector. As a result of the project, the effects of the restriction levels, which are divided into three phases, on the total demand and daily demand were obtained by estimation methods. When a restriction decision is made, the demand profile that may occur can be predicted and planning can be made. Necessary policy decisions should be taken and supported in order to maintain the electricity system safely and increase demand and supply flexibility. Energy efficiency, reducing the share of imported fuels, supporting energy storage systems, should be addressed in energy transformation strategies, with the fact that the demand profile is permanently affected.