Modeling COVID-19 in Vietnam

Purpose The aim of this study was to build a mathematical model of the intensive care unit (ICU) burden in time and space. The model will be calibrated with available data collected in Vietnam (most of the time) or with published data from other countries (especially with regard to risk factors for serious cases). important). This project will also generate data on the level of protection available in the population against coronavirus before COVID-19 and against SARS-Cov 2 during the outbreak (if available). - Importance The ICU burden model was requested by the National Steering Committee for COVID-19 Response. The model will be used to support quick decision-making if a crisis occurs. As such, the model itself is a fundamental part of the study and is eligible for publication. The theoretical framework of the model is general enough to apply to contexts other than Vietnam. - Main target Predict ICU room burden in space and time with and without transferring critical equipment from one hospital to another; Look for policy measures to reduce ICU burden (including isolation, blockade and stay at home, which may vary by location and age group); Estimate the basic infectious force of corona virus, as well as the alert immunity rate (if any); Create a map of the level of protection available in the community against SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses. Check the level of cross protection between SARS-CoV-2 and other corona viruses in Vietnam.