RAPID: Mathematical models for uncovering neurological disorders among the U.S. population infected with COVID-19

The COVID-19 virus has been statistically linked to specific medical disorders connected to the brain and nervous system. Although in the past a fraction of SARS and MER patients have been shown to have anxiety and other neurological disorders, the scale of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021 is another order of magnitude. The reasons for neurological disorders among COVID-19 patients in the U.S. and other countries are not clear, but the data indicate that some of COVID-19 patients have issues with their awareness, consciousness, and cognizance. Experiments have been conducted on patients worldwide and data was recorded on the behavior of COVID-19 patients. In this project, the principal investigators will develop a mathematical model for an understanding of these neurological mechanisms. The model to be developed will be validated and verified. Once the model is calibrated with data from the U.S. and other countries, the investigators will study the role of COVID in developing brain disorders. They will combine the predictability of the model according to the stochastic volatility of the parameters. The results will have an important impact on the overall well-being of the population and society as a whole. If uncertainty concerning the reasons behind brain damage continues then that could further increase the number of people in the U.S. who would have neurological disorders. In spite of the positive influence of vaccination programs, COVID-19 causes some of neurological disorders among the current patients. Along with the COVID-19 burden, hospitals and health administrators need to understand other long-term, brain-related disorders in the population. A good, quantitative study will be of immediate help in controlling the incidence of brain-related damaged individuals who have COVID-19 in the U.S. The investigators intend to provide a free consultation to neuro-physicians across the nation if and when they need any immediate quantitative assistance in predictions (within a limited time frame). The investigators will develop a mathematical model to understand the size and complexity of the association between brain deterioration and COVID-19 in the U.S. Specifically, they will predict and evaluate people in the U.S. who will likely have neurological disorders like psychosis, hemorrhage, delirium, and stroke. Clinical data have shown some association, but why there are such causes of disorders for the COVID patients is not yet clear from these studies. Several studies among COVID patients have found a statistical correlation between clinical case definitions for psychiatric diagnoses and intracerebral hemorrhage. Another uncertainty remains in understanding the impact of COVID in blood-brain barrier locations; clinical studies are in progress in this direction. A statistical regression analysis on a large clinical population might provide an association among various independent variables of neurological disorders. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.