Return to homepagePandemic Pact

A group of engineers, computer scientists and mathematicians (UFPA, USP, INPE, UNIFESP) are adapting the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered or Dead) model - universally used to prospect the spread of epidemics like Covid-19

Grant number: unknown

Grant search

Key facts

  • Disease

    COVID-19

  • start year

    -99

  • Known Financial Commitments (USD)

    $0

  • Funder

    University of São Paulo

  • Principal Investigator

    N/A

  • Research Location

    Brazil

  • Lead Research Institution

    N/A

  • Research Priority Alignment

    N/A

  • Research Category

    Epidemiological studies

  • Research Subcategory

    Disease transmission dynamics

  • Special Interest Tags

    N/A

  • Study Type

    Unspecified

  • Clinical Trial Details

    N/A

  • Broad Policy Alignment

    Pending

  • Age Group

    Not Applicable

  • Vulnerable Population

    Not applicable

  • Occupations of Interest

    Not applicable

Abstract

The adaptation uses probabilistic and artificial intelligence models to insert the degree of impossibility of isolating percentages of the population due to the particularity of the Brazilian demography (households with many people and few rooms). The solution presents more realistic curves about the escalation of the epidemic in the country. The application started in the city of São Paulo (because it is the epicenter of Covid-19 and the largest city in the country). The model is generalizable to any city in the world and refines the studies of Imperial College London, taken as a basis around the world.