Nowcasting COVID-19 deaths
- Funded by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI)
- Total publications:0 publications
Grant number: C19-IUC-397
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Key facts
Disease
COVID-19Funder
UK Research and Innovation (UKRI)Principal Investigator
Dr. Shaun SeamanResearch Location
United KingdomLead Research Institution
MRC Biostatistics UnitResearch Priority Alignment
N/A
Research Category
Epidemiological studies
Research Subcategory
Disease surveillance & mapping
Special Interest Tags
N/A
Study Type
Non-Clinical
Clinical Trial Details
N/A
Broad Policy Alignment
Pending
Age Group
Unspecified
Vulnerable Population
Unspecified
Occupations of Interest
Unspecified
Abstract
Understanding the trajectory of the daily numbers of deaths in people with CoVID-19 is essential to decisions on the response to the CoVID-19 pandemic. Estimating this trajectory from data on numbers of deaths is complicated by the delay between deaths occurring and their being reported to the authorities. In England, Public Health England receives death reports from a number of sources and the reporting delay is typically several days, but can be several weeks. Delayed reporting results in considerable uncertainty about the number of deaths that occurred on the most recent days. We have developed a Bayesian model for estimating the number of deaths per day in each of five age strata within seven English regions.