RAPID: Amplifying threats during cascading crises: Media's role in shaping psychological responses to the war in Ukraine

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine with hostile force, starting the most intense military conflict in Europe since World War II and leading to thousands of injuries and deaths and over 4 million Ukrainian refugees in the first month of the war. Reports of this international geopolitical crisis have instantaneously flooded traditional and social media outlets with graphic videos and images of injuries, death, and destruction - media coverage known to correlate with poor physical and mental health outcomes. But the Ukraine War is occurring in the broader context of the COVID-19 pandemic whose worldwide death toll exceeds 6 million people, escalating climate-related crises, economic volatility and inflation, race-driven social unrest, extreme partisanship, and low confidence in the scientific and social institutions tasked with protecting the public. Direct and media-based exposure to these unprecedented cascading collective traumas are likely to have profound effects on the mental and physical health of Americans. Effective management of these compounding crises requires policies that people support and public adoption of recommended behaviors.

This project assesses psychological reactions to the Ukraine War among a large probability-based nationally representative sample of over 6,500 Americans from the NORC AmeriSpeak panel. They have been surveyed three times since March 2020. Early responses and beliefs about the war in Ukraine are collected as the media transitions from heavy coverage of COVID-19 to heavy coverage of the conflict. Analyses examine how intolerance for uncertainty, emotion regulation, trust in government, and social identities may explain the association between media exposure and emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses to the war. This study investigates how fears and worries about these multiple ongoing threats are compounding negative mental health outcomes and impacting those for whom this multiplicative effect is most detrimental. Finally, this project investigates how war-related media exposure may motivate people to take positive action (e.g., prosocial behavior) to help refugees and defend Ukraine's democracy. Embedding this project in the larger study of the COVID-19 pandemic allows examination of national responses to compounding global crises as they evolve, producing theoretically rich research with practical importance. Results inform policy makers when communicating publicly about multiple existential threats and their potential solutions so they can better promote public well-being without inducing further worry, distress, or emotional exhaustion.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.