What explains ambitious climate policy? Comparing updated climate targets and Covid-19 recovery packages and their drivers

Many countries updated their national climate targets or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, these countries introduced vast COVID-19 economic recovery packages and fiscal reforms that may either serve to strengthen or upset existing carbon-intensive economic systems. This project will study how long-term climate goals, as indicated in countries' NDCs, and short-term implementation of climate policies through pandemic recovery spending plans affect each other and why some countries lead in climate policy implementation, while others lag. The study is based on the collection of and analyses of large data sets across several countries. This study, to be carried out by research teams from several countries, will help identify opportunities for policymakers and international financial institutions on how to promote and implement climate change policy ambitions. In addition to helping to understand cross country differences in climate policy implementation, the results of this research will provide inputs into formulating efficient and innovative climate policies in the US.


This research project will study two inter-related issues. First, it studies the links between long-term national climate ambitions enshrined in NDC updates and short-term implementation plans embedded in COVID-19 recovery packages, and fiscal reform. Second, it investigates the political and economic drivers underlying differences in climate ambitions and implementation abilities in these types of policy intervention across countries. To do so, the project integrates political science and economics, focusing on the role of policy feedback and financing conditions in driving climate ambition and climate policy interventions. In a mixed-methods design, the project combines descriptive statistical analyses with qualitative comparative case studies in the three analytical tasks. The intellectual merit of this project lies in identifying patterns in the relationship of long-term climate targets and plans (NDCs) and short-term implementation (economic recovery spending) as well as the causes of cross-national variation in this relationship. The results of this research will provide inputs into formulating efficient and innovative climate policies in the US.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.