Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Type 2 Diabetes Incidence: Finding synergy among science, policy, and action

The pandemic has placed an unprecedented strain on our society. While public health measures have been effective in flattening the curve to reduce COVID-19 infections, they have led to widespread reductions in physical activity and an increase in snack food consumption. These changes, combined with ongoing stress from social isolation, job losses, and financial strain, may have negative consequences for our health. We suspect that there will be a rise in body weight in the population, causing more people to develop diabetes. Our team will use population health data from Ontario and advanced statistics to study whether the number of people who develop diabetes increases during the months and years following the pandemic, and which subsets of the population (e.g. women versus men, lower versus higher income groups) will be most affected. We will also test whether the intensity and duration of lock-down measures and unsupportive neighbourhood environments (e.g., fewer opportunities for physical activity and healthy eating) contribute to the rise in diabetes incidence, particularly in low income and racialized communities. This work will be vital for identifying potential policy scenarios to avert diabetes cases and reduce healthcare costs. With input and guidance from our multisectoral policy and community engagement committee we will identify potential solutions and create an action plan that will reduce the burden of diabetes in areas impacted the most. Collectively, this research program will provide critical information to guide decisions regarding which public health policies have the greatest potential to improve the health and wellbeing of Canadians, by 'flattening the curve' of diabetes.