Synthesising behavioural and epidemiological models and their methodologies to simulate predictive spread of infectious diseases

The context of the research: In this study, I plan to synthesise and advance the methodologies guiding integrating behavioural and epidemiological models for human infectious diseases. The aims and objectives of the research: In this study, I plan to synthesise the methodologies guiding integrating behavioural and epidemiological models for human infectious diseases. The core research questions I aim to address include: (i) which behavioural mechanistic models in the human psychology literature should be considered when modelling behaviour related to adherence of control strategies; (ii) which data are necessary to model human behaviour in the context of infectious disease outbreaks, noting that this may be disease and context specific; (iii) how can data collection be improved to meet the needs of disease modellers while not creating unrealistic resource expectations for stakeholders; and (iv) how incorporating behavioural mechanisms to infectious disease models affects the research findings and policy implications based on simulation studies. The novelty of the research methodology (if any): I plan to create an updated framework for modelling behaviour in infectious disease outbreaks. This research will enhance our understanding of the usefulness of data flows from various research domains and ways to synthesise them. The potential impact, applications, and benefits: This proposed project will provide a structural framework and model to better predict the spread of infectious diseases through considering human behaviour, thus leading to potentially better-informed models and research findings to inform policy decisions in the event of infectious disease outbreaks. The project encourages interdisciplinary approaches whilst establishing methodologies that future researchers may replicate and improve upon. How the research relates to the EPSRC remit: The proposed project relates to the EPSRC remit according to its research goals in mathematical biology. Specifically, the research relates to their goal of advancing techniques to investigate biological processes and systems since I will be studying the role of human behaviour in infectious disease outbreaks and generating a novel, integrated epidemiological and behavioural model. Into which EPSRC research areas does your research fall Mathematical Sciences Global uncertainties External Partner - World Health Organization (WHO) - Jonathan Polonsky and Olivier le Polain of the WHO have agreed to support the project in the roles of external partners. They have agreed to provide data if relevant to the project and to provide their expertise as needed to support the project. However, data from the WHO is not required for the project to progress. Specifically, they have indicated that they have a dataset from the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that they would be willing to provide if needed. In addition to the WHO, the Warwick Data Science Lab is a relevant group that have studied predicting human actions based on social media data and would be an excellent source to reach out to.