MEMVIE 4

Vaccines are an effective tool against infectious diseases. All decisions on changes to vaccination programmes or the start of a new programme must be driven by the best evidence available. Predictive mathematical models and health economic evaluations have a vital role to play in underpinning the advice from JCVI (the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation) - the committee that advises on national vaccination policy. Modelling the changes in disease and the health-economic consequences, allows JCVI to assess the cost-effectiveness of any change to the vaccination programme. Our research has been instrumental in providing independent predictions to JCVI for the last nine years, enabling this committee to deliver appropriate and timely advice. Given the international prominence of the JCVI, this advice often influences worldwide policy. This project will build on our expertise in four key domains (epidemiological modelling, health economics, public health and public/patient involvement), and our experience of generating the required predictions. These predictions are based on the results of carefully designed mathematical models using the latest understanding of a particular infection, fitting to the available data on cases and vaccine performance, and taking into account groups that may have a higher burden of infection and disease. These projections are then interpreted in a health-economic framework, carefully considering the costs and benefits (both in terms of health and cost impacts) of any change to vaccine policy. This work will be supported by our ground-breaking public involvement using the framework we have developed to guide how public contributors can inform modelling. We will extend the diversity of our already existing public reference group to ensure a range of voices are represented. The precise work-plan will evolve through careful and regular discussion with the three key stakeholders: DHSC (Department of Health and Social Care), JCVI and UKHSA (UK Health Security Agency - who also perform similar modelling and health-economic studies). Together we will determine the forthcoming changes in vaccine programmes, and the new vaccines that could be deployed in the near future, that need our modelling input. We will also be responsive to emergency planning, providing rapid predictions and forecasts to emerging outbreaks worldwide, as we did for the COVID-19 outbreak. The project places considerable emphasis on sharing information. Regular reports on progress will be presented to all stakeholders, to capitalise on their expertise and to ensure all aspects of the problem are fully explored. Our work will be published in peer-reviewed journals and code released to both increase the reach of the research and as an extra level of validation. Finally, we are committed to a programme of public outreach, ensuring the public is well informed about the scientific bases of potential future changes.