The Impact of Post COVID-19 Condition on Nursing Labour Supply

Our analysis uses a combination of real-world data and modelling to determine: (1) the current state of nursing supply, (2) how it will change due to Post COVID-19 Condition (PCC) and (3) policy options for addressing those impacts. Nurses included in this analysis are Registered Nurses, Licensed Practical Nurses, Nursing Attendants, Nurse Practitioners and Registered Psychiatric Nurses. We will use Alberta as the setting of our research due to the availability of data and to compliment ongoing research estimating the demand for healthcare labour in Alberta due to PCC and the effect of COVID-19 vaccines on this demand. Our analysis is comprised of three phases. First, we will estimate the current nursing supply in Alberta. Second, we will determine how nursing supply may change in the future due to the ongoing impact of PCC by building upon an existing model that captures the impact of PCC on occupational time lost due to ongoing symptoms. Third, we will test several policy alternatives to evaluate options for limiting the impact of PCC on nursing supply in Alberta. We will expand the analysis to identify inequity in current supply and changes to supply based on PCC across urban and rural areas. Findings from this analysis will provide a basis for evaluating these questions across Canada, as well as information on relevant policy alternatives for all provinces facing nursing labour supply issues.