Fit for Crisis? Social Policy in Times of COVID-19: a Longitudinal Mixed-Method Approach

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered unprecedented changes in the Swiss labour market, which are expected to have significant effects on the Swiss welfare system. We aim to explore the capacity of social policies to support vulnerable groups in times of crisis and prevent the deepening of inequalities. It is therefore crucial to understand to what extent social policies (including ad hoc programmes adopted since March 2020) have been able to buffer the socioeconomic effects of the pandemic over the long run. To do so, this project relies on a longitudinal mixed-methods approach that will be carried out by an interdisciplinary research team (including sociology, economics, social policy analysis and competencies in mixed-methods. Our ambition is to support evidence-based decisions by identifying (1) which target groups are particularly exposed to the risk of long-term unemployment and social assistance; and (2) what best practices could be promoted in order to improve the resilience of social policies in the context of future crises. Based on a close collaboration with federal and local administrations and relevant stakeholder in the field of social policy, the project pursues the following three core objectives:1. Document social policies at the local level. The first ambition is to document the consequences of the pandemic on the implementation of social policies at the cantonal level and to review the variegated practices and programmes deployed by local authorities in order to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable groups. Based on a documentary analysis and semi-structured interviews with experts and stakeholders, this first objective will result in a typology of local initiatives and adjustments to the pandemic. It will also provide us with key information to proceed with further analyses.2. Monitor the long-term effects of the pandemic on individual trajectories. Using sequence analysis, we aim to collect evidence on the effects of COVID-19 on the individual trajectories of social benefit recipients over a medium-term period. To do so, we will use administrative data sets to describe the diversity of trajectories of recipients of social benefits (including unemployment or disability benefits, social assistance and the so-called APG COVID) and compare their characteristics and dynamics before and since the pandemic. This will allow us to identify and monitor subpopulations that are particularly affected by the crisis and exposed to the risk of long-term unemployment and social assistance.3. Compare local practices and dynamics. The third objective relies on a fully integrated combination of qualitative case studies and sequence analysis at the cantonal level. The mixed-methods research design will allow us to contextualize and interpret quantitative results according to local circumstances and identify best practices in addressing the socioeconomic consequences of the pandemic. It will also provide us with a comparative and diachronic perspective that is currently missing in the literature.