Covid-Norms: Monitoring and Analyzing Preventive Behavior

Background: Reducing the reproduction factor by infection prevention is the only way to combat Covid-19 until a vaccination becomes available. This may be reached by high levels of (personal) hygiene and social distancing as well as the fast interruption of infection chains by testing and contact tracing (Salathé et al., 2020). However, epidemiological simulations demonstrate that these measures only become effective if a crucial share of the population complies with them (Ferretti et al., 2020; Fraser et al., 2004). Among other factors, this resulted in an enforced lockdown of public life all over the world. Given the economic and social downsides of this enforcement as well as the increasing opposition and protests, alternative approaches need to be developed. Particularly in democracies that build on individual freedom and self-reliant decisions of their citizens, the only legitimate (and thus feasible) strategy is to convince the population to comply voluntarily with infection prevention. Hence, the challenge for combating Covid-19 in the long run will be to establish social norms that socially regulate compliance with protective measures in Switzerland by indicating what is and what ought to be done.Aims: Against this background, the present project aims to develop and support a normative approach to disease prevention. This requires 1) a profound theoretical and empirical understanding of the factors and dynamics of social norms of preventive behaviour regarding Covid-19 and 2) the translation of these scientific insights into evidence-based, concrete guidance for monitoring and influencing norms of preventive behaviour in the Swiss population.Model: The theoretical model for a normative approach distinguishes between collective norms (i.e. prevailing attitudes and behaviours in the population), mediated norms (i.e. the representation of these collective norms in news and social media) and perceived norms (i.e. perceptions of individuals about others' attitudes and behaviours). Based on the current state of research, we can assume that collective norms influence perceived norms directly through social learning (H1) and indirectly through their representation in media content (H2) and thereby induced media effects (H3). Furthermore, individuals adapt their behaviours and attitudes to their normative perceptions (H4), representing in aggregate collective norms. This process of norm development is recursive, and each step includes some biases and additional influencing factors, which is why norms are not stable but constantly evolving.Methods and data analysis: The project is designed to gain empirical insights into the dynamics of behavioural norms regarding social distancing, the use of the digital tracing app, and wearing face masks. According to health authorities (personal communication FOPH), these measures will be the most important protective strategies for a long-term containment of the coronavirus in Switzerland. Nevertheless, our methodological setup is flexible enough to adapt to other measures or the introduction of a vaccine. In order to empirically investigate the dynamics of social norms regarding these measures, we apply a longitudinal multi-method design. To cover all relevant influencing factors (e.g. risk perception, perceived efficacy, psychological traits, SES) and the short-term development on the individual level of perceived norms, attitudes and behaviours, we combine a cross-sectional survey (N = 1,500) with a daily mobile experience sampling over four weeks (N = 200). The long-term development of norms on the population level will be investigated over the course of 17 months (Aug 2020 - Dec 2021) by combining a weekly trend-survey (N = 29,750; 425 per week) with a large-scale, semi-automated content analysis of news media and social media that captures mediated norms. Longitudinal data analysis approaches (i.e. multilevel analysis, latent growth models and time-series analysis) will be used to gain differentiated insights into the causal, short- and long-term relationships between collective, mediated and perceived norms.Transfer and expected impact: The project builds on a close collaboration with the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH). This collaboration is crucial regarding the project's aim to rapidly translate the scientific insights into evidence-based, concrete guidance for disease prevention during the Covid-19 crises. The weekly updated monitor of collective, mediated and perceived norms will inform ongoing communication strategies of the FOPH, such as the tracing app campaign, and will help to prepare a potential vaccination campaign. In addition to this contribution to combat Covid-19, we will elaborate in two workshops how to translate the findings into an effective normative approach to disease prevention for future public health challenges.