Populism and Conspiracy in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Linking Discourses and Attitudes in Four European Countries

In recent years, right-wing populist radical parties (PRRP) have enjoyed increasing success in European political systems, largely thanks to their calls for limiting immigration and fighting globalization. However, PRRPs have also adapted to a changing context by using new issues to strengthen their success and reformulate their agenda. In an era defined as 'post-truth', where personal beliefs and emotions are often more persuasive than objective facts, PRRPs could be expected to politicize crucial issues in today's democracies in their discourse by using conspiracy theories. The COVID-19 pandemic represents a relevant testing ground in this respect, and is expected to remain so in the future. Conspiracy theories can be defined as a proposed explanation for events that points to a small group of persons (the conspirators) acting in secret for their own benefit against the common good as the main causal factor (Keeley 1999). Conspiracy theories on health issues claiming that viruses are manufactured by governments or that vaccines are related to autism.The aim of this research project is to bridge populism and conspiracy theories to understand the politicisation of COVID-19. In order to pursue this goal, the project will link two separate but interrelated dimensions: a) the supplyside, i.e., analysis of populist radical-right discourse in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, to understand whether and to what extent conspiracy theories are present in their discourse and how the discursive claims are constructed; b) the demandside, i.e., analyzing the prevalence of conspiratorial beliefs and ideas among the public and their determinants, as well as the relationship between such conspiratorial ideas, on the one hand, and populist attitudes and support for populist parties, on the other hand. Empirically, we will focus a set of PRRPs in four countries - Switzerland, Austria, Italy and France - where such parties have been long established and particularly successful but differ in relevance in their respective political system (Mudde 2007; Bornschier 2010; Albertazzi & McDonnell 2015; Mazzoleni 2018; Bernhard & Kriesi 2019). To allow for a joint supplyside and a demandside analysis, this project will adopt a mixed-method approach (Seawright 2016; Tarrow 1995). First, we will compile an extensive collection of relevant speeches and texts on the topic by leaders and key representatives of the selected PRRPs. Then, we will analyse these documents both quantitatively and qualitatively to determine whether and to what extent conspiracy-related claims are present in PRRPs discourses and how they vary. Second, informed by the results of the analysis of populist actors' discourses, we will assess citizens' beliefs and attitudes related to COVID-related conspiracy theories. To this end, we plan to employ three types of survey experiments - a vignette experiment, a framing experiment, and a conjoint experiment. These are based on an original CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing) survey fielded in all four countries, designed to assess the effect and consequences of conspiracy theories and associated beliefs that would likely be masked in direct questioning (Hainmueller & Hopkins, 2015, Vivyan & Wagner, 2016).