COVID-19 in Norway: A real-time analytical pipeline for preparedness, planning and response during the COVID-19 pandemic in Norway

The coronavirus pandemic is a threat to people's health worldwide. It has already caused great damage to many societies. Politicians need high-quality data on the spread of this infection to be able to choose good measures. We use both mathematical models and collect data on symptoms from the population to provide a detailed picture of the epidemic in Norway. An important way to limit the spread is to reduce person-to-person contact. We collect data about people's movements in society with the use of mobile phones. This, together with data on symptoms of disease in the general population, enables us to estimate the contagiousness of the corona virus and provide good forecasts for the spread and the number of hospitalizations in the short term. The models provide politicians with important information by showing how various measures, such as prioritizing vaccines and isolation, can reduce the spread of infection. Long-term scenarios are run to provide insight into the possible development of the epidemic, which is used in risk assessments. The methods we use are at the forefront of research when it comes to statistical science, and will be important for strengthening preparedness against other infectious diseases in the years to come. We collect data in existing population surveys, such as the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Survey (MoBa) and the Norwegian Influenza Study (NorFlu), and we link data to register information on COVID-19 incidence, in order to understand why some people have higher risk of infection and serious illness than other people. These examinations include important information based on previous genetic and immunological analyses. Such information, together with data on education, occupation and previous illness, provides an understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 will affect the population's health. We also analyze the entire Norwegian population based on the central personal register. To this register we link information from the patient register, the primary health register, the reporting system for infectious diseases and the cause of death register in order to be able to describe and understand the consequences of the epidemic in Norway.