Emotional Contagion (EmotiCon): Predicting and preventing the spread of misinformation, stigma, and anxiety during a pandemic

Misinformation, stigma and anxiety have spread in the population in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the "Emotional Contagion" (EmotiCon) project, we were to explain how and why this happened in Norway. We did this by developing a social simulation of Norway; a multiagent artificial intelligence model. This was designed so that it can help us understand how social stigma and anxiety spread in the population in parallel with the virus infection. This type of knowledge can therefore also be used to predict and help reduce misinformation, stigma and anxiety when societies such as Norway prepare for the next pandemic, or pandemic wave. The EmotiCon project has been carried out by CMSS (Centre for Modeling of Social Systems) in NORCE. To develop the EmotiCon model, we have collected large amounts of data, from social media and from two national surveys taken during different periods during the pandemic. In these surveys, representative panels of the population are interviewed along several dimensions linked to the theme of the project. The EmotiCon model was developed in collaboration with a team of international partners and national subject experts. The EmotiCon project has had a reference group which has consisted of subject experts from ten city municipalities in Norway. The computer model EmotiCon contains simulated agents that have cognitive architectures and weighted social network ties that influence their beliefs and behaviors based on a variety of social psychological theories. These agents have then been empirically calibrated and validated in relation to data on the Norwegian population collected through surveys and analysis of social media. Therefore, the knowledge developed in the EmotiCon project can provide stakeholders with an empirically validated 'artificial community', a simulation platform, in which different types of scenarios and intervention strategies designed to mitigate the spread of anxiety, stigma and misinformation during future pandemics can be tested. The EmotiCon Team has so far had three academic articles accepted for publication. One of the articles deals with the model itself, one with the participation process and one deals with questions related to why some choose not to take or are hesitant in relation to vaccination. The EmotiCon team has three more scientific papers from the project in preparation. The EmotiCon project has so far been presented at four scientific conferences. In the project, a policy note has been created for the reference group and a further policy note will be presented in connection with the final meeting of the reference group in spring 2022.