Risk assessment for zoonotic transmission of avian influenza in the Netherlands

Zoonoses pose a serious threat to public health. Examples include SARS-CoV-2 and avian influenza viruses. For optimal prevention and control, it is important to identify which animals and humans are at risk of infection, so that monitoring and surveillance can be optimised. Aim This project focuses on a quantitative risk assessment for transmission of avian influenza viruses from waterbirds, via captive birds, to humans. Approach/working method We use an integrated approach, with a risk stratification of large- to small-scale animal holdings, while taking differences in species, numbers, geographical distribution, risk, type and duration of contact with humans into account. In the first part, data on risk populations is collected and analysed statistically. These analyses are subsequently extended using transmission models to quantify the impact of interventions such as vaccination or biosecurity measures.