Bridging epidemic modelling and phylogenetic methods to understand avian influenza transmission in poultry trading networks

Poultry production has risen as the main livestock sector worldwide, with this growth being primarily driven by low and middle income countries such as Bangladesh. Unfortunately, the high circulation of avian influenza in domestic flocks undermines economic and societal benefits of poultry production in this country and raises significant concerns for human health. Nonetheless, avian influenza transmission in Bangladeshi poultry remains poorly characterised. To fill this gap, the EPHYFLU project will shed light on the transmission patterns of H9N2 avian influenza virus, the most common strain in Bangladesh, by combining state-of-the-art mechanistic models and high quality sequence data. In particular, this project will develop novel methods to leverage genomic data to inform epidemic models, which will be used to assess the effectiveness of a range of veterinary public health interventions aiming to reduce H9N2 avian influenza transmission. This program will result in novel policy recommendations for avian influenza control in Bangladesh, and contribute to the integration of phylogenetic and mechanistic modelling.