Managing COVID-19 epidemics in low- to middle-income and crisis-affected settings: Epidemiological and economic evaluation

The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly escalating and poses a potentially catastrophic threat to low and middle-income countries (LMICs) as well as crisis-affected populations. To support evidence-based, real-time decision- making by countries, donors, humanitarian actors and other stakeholders, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) hereby proposes a six- month multi-disciplinary project. The project is built around three Workstreams: (1) Evaluation of the health, fiscal and macro-economic impact of response options; (2) Global analysis; and (3) Technical support to decision- makers and local researchers. Specific activities (and associated deliverables) include the following: - Improve global data collation and capacity for economic analysis around COVID-19 - Evaluate the health and economic implications of COVID-19 response options using micro-economic models - Quantify the macro-economic consequences of COVID-19 response options - Predict the transmission and mortality of alternative shielding options for high-risk populations - Provide a regular series of global COVID-19 health impact, resource needs and cost estimates - Advise LMIC governments, donors and humanitarian actors on COVID-19 strategy - Support technical guidance and coordination for humanitarian actors - Support LMIC economists to provide local evidence on COVID-19 responses We propose to undertake the above largely through desk-based work from London over a period of 6 months (Apr-Sep 2020).