Flu:Trailmap Transmission and risk of avian influenza: learning more to advance preparedness

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (clade 2.3.4.4) are having a significant impact on the poultry industry and wild bird populations across the UK and globally. They have also been associated with mammalian infection and potential zoonotic risk. In this project we will build on the success of FluMap to better understand these viruses and their impacts. Work Package 1 (WP1) will investigate features that impact biosecurity through the lens of farm businesses' and farm workers' perceptions, practices and financial capacity to implement biosecurity and in-depth analysis of the enabling environment. In WP2 viral phylodynamic models will be used to evaluate possible future trajectories of H5Nx in the UK. Outbreak investigation data will be used to populate models to to assess the effectiveness of current and alternative control measures including biosecurity and vaccination. Existing wild bird data will be augmented by WP3 to inform models of cross-species interactions. WP3 will use active methods to detect and map novel HPAIV strains and will generate critical ecological field data in support of other WPs. Samples from killed and found-dead wild birds and mammals and live-sampled passerines will be typed. Viral persistence will be measured in the environment. Avian community structure and behaviour on farms and the surrounding landscape will be measured. WP4 will assess virological factors critical to viral fitness and emergence and link them to differential disease outcomes. Both viral infectivity and factors that dictate infection of different species will be assessed. Finally, WP5 will assess the role of host factors, including immunity, in governing susceptibility, outcome, epidemiology, and virus evolution. Implications of vaccination will also be assessed to help inform future mitigation strategies. Together these WPs will synergise to help understand the Transmission and Risk of Avian Influenza and Learn More to Advance Preparedness (FLU: TRAILMAP).