Multi-Scale Spatiotemporal Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for HPAI H5N1 Risk Assessment

Avian influenza poses significant risks not only to birds but also to human health and the economy. Currently, we are amid an outbreak of the highly contagious H5N1 strain, which has caused widespread issues among birds and mammals, including rare human cases. Our aim is to map and forecast where and when bird flu might strike next at the level of all small areas in Canada. Our approach involves studying a variety of risk factors that can influence the spread of the disease. These include bird migration patterns, which can bring infected birds into contact with domestic flocks and wildlife; climate conditions that affect the survival and transmission of the virus in the environment; human population densities, which can impact how quickly the disease might spread in human communities; and the layout of land use, such as farms and water bodies, which are critical habitats for wild and domestic birds. Additionally, we consider the number of facilities for poultry and poultry production, and bird harvest and hunting areas, which are vital for understanding how human activities intersect with bird populations at risk. By integrating these risk factors, we will create sophisticated models that predict high-risk areas and times for bird flu outbreaks. This information will be crucial for stakeholders such as public health officials, farmers, and wildlife managers, enabling them to implement targeted interventions like enhanced surveillance, improved biosecurity on poultry farms, and strategic vaccination efforts. Our project will produce an interactive dashboard providing real-time evidence and detailed maps of bird flu risks. This tool will empower decision-makers to act quickly and effectively, preventing outbreaks and safeguarding both animal and human health. By leveraging advanced analytics, we aim to contribute significantly to public health readiness and response strategies, especially in preventing the spread of bird flu.