COVID-19 and Cohort Longevity: Causal Estimates from a Cohort Discontinuity Design

Project Summary In this R21, we propose a detailed study of Covid-19's impact on the mortality of single-year birth cohorts of males and females in France and the United States, with additional analyses by race for the United States. The findings from this R21 will complement existing studies of the mortality impact of Covid-19 that have almost exclusively adopted a period approach using measures such as period life expectancy. Our proposed analyses will combine important developments in the formal demography of cohort survivorship by Guillot and colleagues with a causal identification strategy employing a novel cohort discontinuity design developed by Wu, Mark, and colleagues to identify the causal effect of the Great Recession on U.S. fertility. Our analyses will provide credible causal estimates of: (1) the effect of Covid-19 on all-cause mortality for single-year birth cohorts of males and females in France and the United States, and for Black and White Americans in the United States; and (2) the degree to which the Covid-19 mortality shock has offset or reversed pre-pandemic progress in cohort survival. Our analyses will rely throughout on secondary data from French and U.S. vital registers that provide detailed, high quality data on all-cause mortality for single-year birth cohorts of males and females. Findings will break new ground by providing credible causal evidence relevant to ongoing mortality research and debates on racial disparities, health systems, pension schemes, and population dynamics.