Pandemic preparedness in schools: A community based approach for sentinel surveillance

PROJECT SUMMARY The COVID-19 pandemic prompted governments to implement a range of public health measures, including school closures, to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, the role of in-school transmission of SARS-CoV- 2, what mitigation levels and testing policies are needed, and the value of school closures have been contentious issues. In-person school closures or quarantine policies that prevent students from being in school can have immediate and long-lasting negative impacts on child development. In New York City, the calculated magnitude of student-level learning losses due to COVID-19 and the transition away from classroom-based instruction was on average 125 (69%) and 212 (118%) days of reading and math, respectively, relative to a typical 180-day school year. Across the United States, reduced educational attainment is estimated to translate into a loss of four to five percent of lifetime earning wages. Thus, opening schools to in-person learning is an important step in re-opening the economy and promoting development and success of students; however, it comes with the danger of increasing contact networks and transmission opportunities. To assess this trade-off and the potential for increased transmission, we will build models to incorporate school-level infection monitoring data along with community-level testing data, vaccination data, immunological and serological indicators among students and faculty, in addition to built environment indicators of school settings. These models will allows us to determine associations between community-level transmission rates and test positivity rates within schools (Aim 1), develop an epidemiological disease transmission model that identifies how to cost-effectively collect sentinel school surveillance data (Aim 2), and identify policy trigger points to predict when interventions should be implemented in schools to prevent disease transmission (Aim 3). Although I have the requisite engineering background and experience developing infectious disease models, additional training will maximize success of the proposed project and catalyze a robust independent research program. To accomplish these goals, I will obtain additional training in biological sciences and public health, particularly in community engagement, immunology, virology, and epidemiology. I will develop these skills through didactic training, independent study, and mentorship from experts in these fields: Drs. Maida Galvez, Rachel Vreeman, Jeffrey Shaman, Andrea Graham, Nicole Bouvier, and Chris Gennings. At the end of this training period, I will be uniquely positioned to comprehensively examine the effects of respiratory disease transmission in future research. Further, I will use the knowledge gained and the developed disease transmission models in future grant applications, establishing a crucial step toward my long-term goal of optimally designing infectious disease monitoring networks to reduce the spread of disease and improve the health of communities.