Characterising the effect of seasonality on the spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of dengue virus.

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is dependent on the vector capacity of mosquito populations (their ability to carry and transmit DENV), which is influenced by seasonally varying traits such as mosquito lifespan. Novel and effective DENV control measures include the release of mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia bacteria, which confers reduced vector capacity, and vaccination. The high global economic and health burden of DENV is increasing with growing urbanisation and climate change. To target control measures to areas with the greatest burden of DENV, accurate estimates of where DENV is spreading the most are necessary. We will develop DENV transmission models which integrate mosquito traits fitted to data describing the number of reported DENV cases over time in South East Asia and South America. The models will be further developed (addition of spatial structure) to explore the impact of population movement on the spread of DENV. In addition, the potential impact of novel control measures will be evaluated, including the release of Wolbachia infected mosquitoes, to explore their impact on DENV transmission. This research is therefore of high relevance to public health and to the DENV research field.