Complex Adaptive Modelling Climate Change Health Impacts in Malawi

Malawi is among the most climate change affected countries in the world, and its Chilwa Basin among the most severely affected regions in the country. Extreme weather events including floods and drought are coupled with human- induced deforestation. These are causally associated with population displacement, disruption in health services, increases in specific infectious diseases and in acute and chronic undernutrition. Working in consultation with identified operational partners, we will apply Complex Adaptive Systems Theory to develop a computer-based simulation of the following five subsystems and their interactions in the Chilwa Basin: 1) ecological services, 2) extreme weather, 3) infectious diseases, 4) food security, and 5) clinical public health & disaster risk management. Our target heath impacts are (A) infectious diseases: malaria, cholera, schistosomiasis, acute diarrheal disease; (B) food security outcomes: protein energy malnutrition, growth stunting in children, and (C) potable water, sanitation and hygiene. In cooperation with operational partners, we will (a) select or design appropriate indicators, (b) design, iterate and refine the accuracy of the model, (b) create a monitoring and evaluation dashboard, and (c) develop a scenario planning toolbox for selecting, monitoring and evaluating clinical and population health treatment, prevention and ecological adaptation interventions.